Leading Product Teams Through Ambiguity

The Clarity Illusion

Junior product managers often wait for clarity before acting. They want complete information, validated assumptions, and stakeholder alignment before making decisions.

The problem? In complex domains, clarity is a luxury that arrives too late.

By the time you have perfect information, the market has moved, competitors have acted, or the opportunity has passed. The skill isn't eliminating ambiguity—it's navigating through it.

Frameworks for Uncertainty

Over the years, I've developed mental models for operating in fog:

Reversible vs. Irreversible Decisions

Not all decisions carry equal weight. Reversible decisions—pricing experiments, UI changes, feature flags—should be made quickly with minimal analysis. Irreversible decisions—platform architecture, market positioning, key partnerships—deserve deliberation.

Most decisions are more reversible than they appear. Teams often over-analyze choices that could easily be undone.

The 70% Rule

If you have 70% of the information you wish you had, decide. Waiting for the remaining 30% rarely changes the outcome but always costs time.

Disagree and Commit

When leading teams, I've learned that prolonged debate is more damaging than imperfect decisions. Once a direction is chosen, full commitment from everyone matters more than universal agreement.

Communicating Uncertainty

Leaders often feel pressure to project confidence even when uncertain. I've found the opposite approach more effective: acknowledge uncertainty explicitly, then explain the reasoning anyway.

"We don't know if this will work, and here's why we're doing it" is more honest and more motivating than false certainty. Teams can handle ambiguity. They struggle with leaders who pretend it doesn't exist.

The Director's Dilemma

At the director level, you're far enough from execution to lack ground truth but close enough to be accountable for outcomes. This distance creates a specific type of ambiguity—you must trust teams while maintaining responsibility.

The solution isn't more oversight. It's better questions.

I've learned to ask "What would change your mind?" more often than "Are you sure?" The first question reveals thinking. The second just creates pressure.